Stationary Distribution
A stationary distribution is an equilibrium probability distribution for a Markov chain: if the chain starts in this distribution, it remains in this distribution forever. For irreducible, aperiodic chains, the stationary distribution describes the long-run proportion of time spent in each state.
Definition and existence
A probability distribution on the state space is stationary (or invariant) for a Markov chain with transition matrix if
i.e., for all .
If , then , and by induction, for all . The distribution is "frozen in time."
The equation means is a left eigenvector of with eigenvalue 1. Since is stochastic (row sums are 1), it always has eigenvalue 1, but the corresponding left eigenvector need not be a probability distribution (it may have negative entries or infinite mass). Uniqueness and positivity require additional conditions.
For the transition matrix
we solve :
These reduce to . With the normalization , we obtain
This is the unique stationary distribution (assuming ).
For the simple random walk on with (drift to the right), the chain is transient: it escapes to and visits each state only finitely many times. There is no probability distribution satisfying β the chain has no stationary distribution.
Existence and uniqueness
Let be an irreducible Markov chain on a countable state space .
- If the chain is positive recurrent, there exists a unique stationary distribution , and for all .
- If the chain is null recurrent or transient, no stationary distribution exists.
Here, a state is positive recurrent if , where is the first return time to . For irreducible chains, recurrence/transience and positive/null recurrence are class properties.
- Dimension 1: The symmetric random walk on (with ) is recurrent but null recurrent: but . Hence, no stationary distribution.
- Dimension 2: The symmetric random walk on is also null recurrent. No stationary distribution.
- Dimension : The symmetric random walk on for is transient, so no stationary distribution.
Every irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space is automatically positive recurrent, hence possesses a unique stationary distribution. This follows because on a finite state space, by ergodicity.
Computing the stationary distribution
A birth-death chain on has transitions only to neighboring states:
The stationary distribution satisfies the detailed balance equations:
Iterating this relation gives
Normalization determines (if the series converges).
In an queueing system, arrivals occur at rate and service at rate . Modeling the queue length as a birth-death chain with and gives
If (arrival rate less than service rate), then , so
This is the geometric distribution with parameter .
Convergence to stationarity
Let be an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent Markov chain with stationary distribution . Then for all states :
In other words, the distribution of converges to regardless of the initial state.
This theorem justifies interpreting as the long-run proportion of time the chain spends in state :
For the two-state chain with stationary distribution , the eigenvalues of are and . Hence,
As , the second term vanishes (assuming ), and , where each row is .
Reversibility and detailed balance
A Markov chain with stationary distribution is reversible if it satisfies the detailed balance equations:
If detailed balance holds, then (sum over ). Conversely, not all stationary distributions satisfy detailed balance; those that do correspond to chains that "look the same" forwards and backwards in time.
An urn contains balls distributed between two urns. At each step, a ball is chosen uniformly at random and moved to the other urn. Let be the number of balls in urn 1. Then
The stationary distribution is binomial:
One can verify detailed balance: .
A simple counterexample: the cyclic chain on with . The uniform distribution is stationary, but detailed balance fails: .
Summary
Stationary distributions capture the long-run equilibrium behavior of Markov chains:
- Existence and uniqueness: Guaranteed for irreducible, positive recurrent chains.
- Convergence: For aperiodic chains, as .
- Interpretation: is the long-run proportion of time spent in state .
- Detailed balance: Simplifies computation for reversible chains.
These properties make stationary distributions central to applications in queueing theory, statistical physics, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).