ConceptComplete

Stationary Distribution

A stationary distribution is an equilibrium probability distribution for a Markov chain: if the chain starts in this distribution, it remains in this distribution forever. For irreducible, aperiodic chains, the stationary distribution describes the long-run proportion of time spent in each state.


Definition and existence

Definition1.1Stationary distribution

A probability distribution Ο€=(Ο€i)i∈S\pi = (\pi_i)_{i \in S} on the state space SS is stationary (or invariant) for a Markov chain with transition matrix PP if

Ο€P=Ο€,\pi P = \pi,

i.e., βˆ‘i∈SΟ€ipij=Ο€j\sum_{i \in S} \pi_i p_{ij} = \pi_j for all j∈Sj \in S.

If X0βˆΌΟ€X_0 \sim \pi, then X1βˆΌΟ€P=Ο€X_1 \sim \pi P = \pi, and by induction, XnβˆΌΟ€X_n \sim \pi for all nβ‰₯0n \geq 0. The distribution is "frozen in time."

RemarkLeft eigenvector

The equation Ο€P=Ο€\pi P = \pi means Ο€\pi is a left eigenvector of PP with eigenvalue 1. Since PP is stochastic (row sums are 1), it always has eigenvalue 1, but the corresponding left eigenvector need not be a probability distribution (it may have negative entries or infinite mass). Uniqueness and positivity require additional conditions.

ExampleTwo-state chain

For the transition matrix

P=(1βˆ’Ξ±Ξ±Ξ²1βˆ’Ξ²),P = \begin{pmatrix} 1-\alpha & \alpha \\ \beta & 1-\beta \end{pmatrix},

we solve Ο€P=Ο€\pi P = \pi:

Ο€0(1βˆ’Ξ±)+Ο€1Ξ²=Ο€0,Ο€0Ξ±+Ο€1(1βˆ’Ξ²)=Ο€1.\pi_0 (1-\alpha) + \pi_1 \beta = \pi_0, \quad \pi_0 \alpha + \pi_1 (1-\beta) = \pi_1.

These reduce to Ο€1Ξ²=Ο€0Ξ±\pi_1 \beta = \pi_0 \alpha. With the normalization Ο€0+Ο€1=1\pi_0 + \pi_1 = 1, we obtain

Ο€0=Ξ²Ξ±+Ξ²,Ο€1=Ξ±Ξ±+Ξ².\pi_0 = \frac{\beta}{\alpha + \beta}, \quad \pi_1 = \frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}.

This is the unique stationary distribution (assuming Ξ±,Ξ²>0\alpha, \beta > 0).

ExampleStationary distribution may not exist

For the simple random walk on Z\mathbb{Z} with p>1/2p > 1/2 (drift to the right), the chain is transient: it escapes to +∞+\infty and visits each state only finitely many times. There is no probability distribution Ο€\pi satisfying Ο€P=Ο€\pi P = \pi β€” the chain has no stationary distribution.


Existence and uniqueness

Theorem1.1Existence for irreducible, positive recurrent chains

Let (Xn)(X_n) be an irreducible Markov chain on a countable state space SS.

  1. If the chain is positive recurrent, there exists a unique stationary distribution Ο€\pi, and Ο€i>0\pi_i > 0 for all i∈Si \in S.
  2. If the chain is null recurrent or transient, no stationary distribution exists.

Here, a state ii is positive recurrent if E[Ο„i∣X0=i]<∞\mathbb{E}[\tau_i \mid X_0 = i] < \infty, where Ο„i=inf⁑{nβ‰₯1:Xn=i}\tau_i = \inf\{n \geq 1 : X_n = i\} is the first return time to ii. For irreducible chains, recurrence/transience and positive/null recurrence are class properties.

ExampleSymmetric random walk in dimensions 1 and 2
  • Dimension 1: The symmetric random walk on Z\mathbb{Z} (with p=1/2p = 1/2) is recurrent but null recurrent: P(Ο„0<∞)=1\mathbb{P}(\tau_0 < \infty) = 1 but E[Ο„0]=∞\mathbb{E}[\tau_0] = \infty. Hence, no stationary distribution.
  • Dimension 2: The symmetric random walk on Z2\mathbb{Z}^2 is also null recurrent. No stationary distribution.
  • Dimension β‰₯3\geq 3: The symmetric random walk on Zd\mathbb{Z}^d for dβ‰₯3d \geq 3 is transient, so no stationary distribution.
RemarkFinite state space

Every irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space is automatically positive recurrent, hence possesses a unique stationary distribution. This follows because on a finite state space, βˆ‘iE[Ο„i∣X0=i]<∞\sum_i \mathbb{E}[\tau_i \mid X_0 = i] < \infty by ergodicity.


Computing the stationary distribution

ExampleBirth-death chain

A birth-death chain on S={0,1,2,…}S = \{0, 1, 2, \ldots\} has transitions only to neighboring states:

pi,i+1=pi,pi,iβˆ’1=qi,pii=ri=1βˆ’piβˆ’qi.p_{i,i+1} = p_i, \quad p_{i,i-1} = q_i, \quad p_{ii} = r_i = 1 - p_i - q_i.

The stationary distribution satisfies the detailed balance equations:

Ο€ipi,i+1=Ο€i+1pi+1,i,forΒ allΒ iβ‰₯0.\pi_i p_{i,i+1} = \pi_{i+1} p_{i+1,i}, \quad \text{for all } i \geq 0.

Iterating this relation gives

Ο€n=Ο€0∏k=0nβˆ’1pkqk+1.\pi_n = \pi_0 \prod_{k=0}^{n-1} \frac{p_k}{q_{k+1}}.

Normalization βˆ‘n=0βˆžΟ€n=1\sum_{n=0}^\infty \pi_n = 1 determines Ο€0\pi_0 (if the series converges).

ExampleM/M/1 queue

In an M/M/1M/M/1 queueing system, arrivals occur at rate Ξ»\lambda and service at rate ΞΌ\mu. Modeling the queue length as a birth-death chain with pi=Ξ»/(Ξ»+ΞΌ)p_i = \lambda/(\lambda + \mu) and qi=ΞΌ/(Ξ»+ΞΌ)q_i = \mu/(\lambda+\mu) gives

Ο€n=Ο€0ρn,ρ=λμ.\pi_n = \pi_0 \rho^n, \quad \rho = \frac{\lambda}{\mu}.

If ρ<1\rho < 1 (arrival rate less than service rate), then βˆ‘n=0∞ρn=1/(1βˆ’Ο)\sum_{n=0}^\infty \rho^n = 1/(1-\rho), so

Ο€0=1βˆ’Ο,Ο€n=(1βˆ’Ο)ρn.\pi_0 = 1 - \rho, \quad \pi_n = (1-\rho) \rho^n.

This is the geometric distribution with parameter ρ\rho.


Convergence to stationarity

Theorem1.2Convergence theorem

Let (Xn)(X_n) be an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent Markov chain with stationary distribution Ο€\pi. Then for all states i,j∈Si, j \in S:

lim⁑nβ†’βˆžpij(n)=Ο€j.\lim_{n \to \infty} p_{ij}^{(n)} = \pi_j.

In other words, the distribution of XnX_n converges to Ο€\pi regardless of the initial state.

This theorem justifies interpreting Ο€j\pi_j as the long-run proportion of time the chain spends in state jj:

lim⁑nβ†’βˆž1nβˆ‘k=0nβˆ’11Xk=j=Ο€ja.s.\lim_{n \to \infty} \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} \mathbf{1}_{X_k = j} = \pi_j \quad \text{a.s.}

ExampleConvergence for two-state chain

For the two-state chain with stationary distribution Ο€=(Ξ²/(Ξ±+Ξ²),Ξ±/(Ξ±+Ξ²))\pi = (\beta/(\alpha+\beta), \alpha/(\alpha+\beta)), the eigenvalues of PP are 11 and 1βˆ’Ξ±βˆ’Ξ²1 - \alpha - \beta. Hence,

Pn=1Ξ±+Ξ²(Ξ²Ξ±Ξ²Ξ±)+(1βˆ’Ξ±βˆ’Ξ²)n1Ξ±+Ξ²(Ξ±βˆ’Ξ±βˆ’Ξ²Ξ²).P^n = \frac{1}{\alpha+\beta} \begin{pmatrix} \beta & \alpha \\ \beta & \alpha \end{pmatrix} + (1-\alpha-\beta)^n \frac{1}{\alpha+\beta} \begin{pmatrix} \alpha & -\alpha \\ -\beta & \beta \end{pmatrix}.

As nβ†’βˆžn \to \infty, the second term vanishes (assuming Ξ±+β∈(0,2)\alpha + \beta \in (0, 2)), and Pnβ†’1Ο€TP^n \to \mathbf{1} \pi^T, where each row is Ο€\pi.


Reversibility and detailed balance

Definition1.2Reversible Markov chain

A Markov chain with stationary distribution Ο€\pi is reversible if it satisfies the detailed balance equations:

Ο€ipij=Ο€jpjiforΒ allΒ i,j∈S.\pi_i p_{ij} = \pi_j p_{ji} \quad \text{for all } i, j \in S.

If detailed balance holds, then Ο€P=Ο€\pi P = \pi (sum over ii). Conversely, not all stationary distributions satisfy detailed balance; those that do correspond to chains that "look the same" forwards and backwards in time.

ExampleEhrenfest urn model

An urn contains NN balls distributed between two urns. At each step, a ball is chosen uniformly at random and moved to the other urn. Let XnX_n be the number of balls in urn 1. Then

pk,k+1=Nβˆ’kN,pk,kβˆ’1=kN.p_{k, k+1} = \frac{N-k}{N}, \quad p_{k, k-1} = \frac{k}{N}.

The stationary distribution is binomial:

Ο€k=(Nk)12N.\pi_k = \binom{N}{k} \frac{1}{2^N}.

One can verify detailed balance: Ο€kpk,k+1=Ο€k+1pk+1,k\pi_k p_{k, k+1} = \pi_{k+1} p_{k+1, k}.

RemarkNot all chains are reversible

A simple counterexample: the cyclic chain on {0,1,2}\{0, 1, 2\} with p01=p12=p20=1p_{01} = p_{12} = p_{20} = 1. The uniform distribution is stationary, but detailed balance fails: Ο€0p01=1/3β‰ 0=Ο€1p10\pi_0 p_{01} = 1/3 \neq 0 = \pi_1 p_{10}.


Summary

Stationary distributions capture the long-run equilibrium behavior of Markov chains:

  • Existence and uniqueness: Guaranteed for irreducible, positive recurrent chains.
  • Convergence: For aperiodic chains, pij(n)β†’Ο€jp_{ij}^{(n)} \to \pi_j as nβ†’βˆžn \to \infty.
  • Interpretation: Ο€j\pi_j is the long-run proportion of time spent in state jj.
  • Detailed balance: Simplifies computation for reversible chains.

These properties make stationary distributions central to applications in queueing theory, statistical physics, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).