Simple Linear Regression
Linear regression models the relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables, providing the most fundamental tool in statistical modeling and prediction.
The Model
The simple linear regression model posits that the response is related to the predictor by where is the intercept, is the slope, and are independent errors with and . The parameters , , and are unknown.
The ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators minimize the sum of squared residuals: The solution is:
Properties of OLS Estimators
Under the model assumptions:
- and (unbiased)
- The unbiased estimator of is
Coefficient of Determination
The coefficient of determination where (total), (regression), and (error). It equals the square of the sample correlation: . While measures the proportion of variance explained, it always increases with more predictors, making the adjusted more appropriate for model comparison.